Occurrence of Rare Earth Elements in Türkiye and Their Global Future

As a result of peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, we have begun to hear frequently about a concept known as Rare Earth Elements (REE).

What makes this concept so significant? Or is this issue truly worthy of such attention?

First, the term REE encompasses the lanthanides along with scandium and yttrium. Their applications are extremely broad, especially in everyday technological devices such as smartphones and automobiles, as well as in the transmission of renewable energy sources. This is the segment relevant to end users. As one might expect, REE also hold a crucial position in defense industries for states. This is the primary reason we can understand why Trump offered support to Ukraine on peace matters in exchange for REE.^【1】

Between 2020 and 2023, the United States of America (USA) imported approximately 70 percent of its REE from China. Given the recent tensions between the USA and China, it is clear why the USA has made such a request of Ukraine. The elements in Ukraine alone are insufficient to reduce the USA’s dependence on Chinese imports. China controls nearly 61 percent of global REE ore production, and its refining and separation capacity reaches up to 92 percent.^【2】 This indicates that if the USA fails to reach an agreement with China, its defense industry could face long-term difficulties.

This raises the following question in our minds: Are the trade wars between the USA and China truly short-term?

Recently, I have also been considering this: Has there ever been a trade war in world history before? While similar events may have occurred in the past, the current trade conflict is causing not only regional but also global effects. For example, by examining how much REE are used in the production of a single F-35 fighter jet exported by the USA to many countries, we can better understand China’s strategic leverage:

F-35 Fighter Jet – Lowest Empty Weight Model: 29300 lb (~13290 kg)^【3】

Amount of Rare Earth Elements Used: 900 lb (~408 kg)

This indicates that approximately 3 percent of the aircraft’s weight consists of REE.^【4】

The Importance of REE Production in a Multipolar World

China, as the country that both holds reserves and exports REE, has become a critical actor for many nations. In a system dominated by a single player, competition cannot exist. Where there is no competition, all rules are written by one side alone.

This raises another question: Wasn’t the USA also the sole dominant player before China? What difference does it make that the name has now changed?

What if I were to say this: The world’s nations, and many states in particular, no longer desire a unipolar order. In fact, we cannot directly reach this conclusion; we can only infer it indirectly. Having witnessed two world wars and the Cold War, countries are now striving to strengthen their economies and politics in multiple directions. This points to a growing desire for a “multipolar” arena where many actors have a voice. This is precisely why institutions like the European Union or NATO are currently unable to demonstrate their full functionality.

Can organizations such as the European Union, which seek to influence the domestic politics of other countries, truly ensure those countries’ stability? At present, the triad of the USA, China, and Russia not only remains at the center of global agendas but also actively influences the political and economic decision-making mechanisms of other nations. This situation may create an opportunity for countries like Türkiye, which aim to act as mediators, in the medium and long term, by contributing to a new international balance.

Türkiye’s Efforts in Rare Earth Elements Production

Türkiye’s measurable reserve capacity stands at 694 million tons.^【5】 This places Türkiye second in the global ranking of raw material reserves. The USA, which has strained relations with China, is a potential customer. You can easily imagine other potential countries. If Türkiye reaches a level where it can compete with China in the REE sector, how will our relations evolve? Before addressing this question, I believe we must also recognize that Türkiye currently has no active production process. We have not yet entered the production league. Most of the identified reserves are located in Eskişehir. But how much of this is suitable for processing? There is no clear data.

Our universities and research institutions, along with state agencies, must significantly increase fieldwork efforts. According to the 2020 report of our Ministry of Industry and Technology, necessary research directives have been issued to various universities and institutions.^【6】 In 2024, our Ministry of Industry and Technology opened a research center at Munzur University under the name MUNTEAM. This presents potential for various research and development institutions. Through fieldwork and collaboration between the ministry and universities, we can accelerate the transition to serial production.

The Future of Rare Earth Elements

REE Processing Steps (National Intelligence Academy)

While reading a recent report on REE, I came across several proposed solutions to counter potential global threats in the future. Two of these seem implausible to me:

1) REE can be recovered from recycled products.

Some level of recovery is likely, but let us not forget that the recycling rate for items like plastic bottles or other packaging is far from high. The expected yield leaves me skeptical.

2) States can establish non-conflictual frameworks for raw material exchange through various agreements to reduce potential tensions.

We know that some states do not recognize borders or laws. As long as a mechanism exists to impose consequences on such states, global peace can be maintained.

The USA’s request for REE reserves from Ukraine has highlighted the importance of these resources. In this context, we have examined how the world and Türkiye might be positioned in the future under the framework of the China-USA trade tension.

Until viable alternatives are found, REE will remain as essential as oil. Their use in international deterrence is a reality. Therefore, Türkiye must become an actor with a voice in this field. We must not only add value through production but also become a party that revises international rules. Until our next article...