Alternative Security Searches in the Geopolitical Storm: Pakistan–Saudi Arabia Defense Agreement

On 17 September 2025, in the Saudi capital Riyadh, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Pakistani Prime Minister Muhammad Shahbaz Sharif signed the “Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement.” The joint statement issued by the official authorities of both countries stated that the agreement aims to enhance defense cooperation between the two nations and strengthen joint deterrence against any potential attack. It further emphasized that, similar to Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, any attack on one party shall be considered an attack on both. A senior Saudi official also confirmed that the agreement constitutes a comprehensive defense pact encompassing all military capabilities and assets. In this regard, Pakistan’s Defense Minister Khawaja Asif stated that his country’s nuclear capability could be utilized under the terms of the agreement with Saudi Arabia. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif’s gratitude to Mohammed bin Salman one day after the signing, for Saudi interest in developing investments and economic ties, underscores the economic dimension of the talks and the agreement from Pakistan’s perspective.

To properly understand the process leading to this agreement and the strategic orientations of both countries, a holistic analysis of their respective needs and threat perceptions, as well as the regional and global dynamics shaping them, is essential.

For Pakistan, overcoming economic distress caused by high inflation and chronic budget deficits while maintaining a strong military posture against India is imperative. This necessity brings with it a demand for external financing. The sustainability of Pakistan’s balancing and deterrence capacity against India depends entirely on acquiring new and advanced weapons systems. The most concrete evidence of this is the superiority Pakistan’s Air Force achieved over India during a four-day conflict in May 2025, using systems procured from China. This example highlights how critical external sources and technological support are for military success and clearly demonstrates Pakistan’s need to diversify its alternatives. Therefore, a defense partnership with a powerful financial partner like Saudi Arabia will not only alleviate economic burdens but, combined with technology from China and strategic support from Türkiye, will create a multidimensional deterrence framework.

Pakistan’s close military and economic ties with China and Türkiye are already well known. Indeed, the support these two countries provided to Islamabad during recent clashes with India revealed the practical implications of this partnership. Adding a defense agreement with Saudi Arabia to this existing landscape will not only provide economic relief but also significantly contribute to Pakistan’s efforts to build a balanced and deterrent military capability against India. Within the framework of this agreement, Saudi Arabia could support Pakistan in acquiring arms from technologically advanced producer nations such as Türkiye and China, as well as in developing domestic defense industries through joint technology development and co-production initiatives.

However, Islamabad cannot rely solely on unilateral alliances within its security equation. While the need to deepen economic cooperation with the United States persists, Washington’s close ties with India are pushing Pakistan toward seeking alternative sources. The central challenge in this search is securing external financing without becoming overly dependent on China and creating resource diversification. Moreover, Israel’s support for India and its massacres in Palestine have negatively affected Pakistan–Israel relations. All these conditions make the agreement with Saudi Arabia more meaningful and even open the path toward establishing an extended nuclear deterrence umbrella at the regional level.

From Saudi Arabia’s perspective, unlike Pakistan, it is not in active conflict with a powerful neighbor such as India. Therefore, recent regional and global developments, rather than immediate security needs, have played a decisive role in paving the way for this agreement. Particularly noteworthy is the timing of the agreement, signed at a moment when confidence in the long-standing U.S. security guarantees provided to Gulf states is steadily declining. America’s relative loss of power and shifting priorities have led regional countries to question the U.S. commitment to sustaining its security assurances. This situation is driving these nations to seek alternative paths to ensure their own security.

Considering Pakistan’s possession of tactical and strategic nuclear weapons, short- and medium-range ballistic missiles, and cruise missiles; its strained relations with Israel; its desire to strengthen ties with the Islamic world; and its urgent need for external financing, a comprehensive agreement with Pakistan emerges as a significant option for Saudi Arabia to enhance its deterrence and bolster its security.

Although Saudi Arabia possesses a relatively superior conventional military capacity compared to many countries in its region, its decision to sign a defense agreement that includes nuclear capability sharing with Pakistan is striking. Nuclear weapons, as John Mearsheimer put it, provide ultimate deterrence precisely because their use is feared. Therefore, to understand why and against whom Saudi Arabia seeks ultimate deterrence, one must focus on the transformation in its threat perception and security approach.

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman stated in 2018 that if Iran were to develop nuclear weapons, Saudi Arabia would follow a similar path. The Israel–Iran War and ongoing debates among Iranian elites regarding the necessity of acquiring nuclear weapons indicate that this scenario must not be dismissed despite recent attacks. Furthermore, Israel’s strikes against Palestine, Lebanon, Syria, Iran, Yemen, and most recently Qatar—countries perceived as under the U.S. security umbrella—demonstrate that Israel is increasingly viewed as a threat even by nations closely allied with the United States. The Qatar case reveals that American security guarantees may not provide adequate protection against Israeli attacks.

The fact that the defense agreement was signed nine days after Israel’s attack on Qatar may initially suggest that Saudi Arabia signed the pact as a direct response to this event. However, the fact that inter-delegation talks have been ongoing for nearly a year weakens this interpretation. Nevertheless, while the extent to which Israel’s attack on Qatar influenced the scope and nature of the agreement remains uncertain, it is plausible to assess that Saudi Arabia has strengthened its perception of threat from Israel and has entered a pursuit of nuclear deterrence in this context.

Therefore, this agreement should be viewed not as situational, symbolic, or temporary, but as a reflection of both states’ alternative security pursuits in response to changing regional and global conditions. The extent to which absolute reliance on great powers for security can be dangerously flawed in today’s geopolitical storm is becoming increasingly clear. In this context, as confidence in American security guarantees is being questioned and invasions and attacks are becoming more widespread, it is possible that middle powers and regional actors will increasingly enter into defense agreements with each other and/or with countries possessing security vulnerabilities.

The scenarios involving Pakistan bringing Saudi Arabia under its extended nuclear deterrence umbrella and strengthening the Pakistani military through Saudi support must be analyzed across political, military, and economic dimensions. This development could heighten regional tensions, trigger the proliferation of nuclear weapons, and lead to the formation of new alliances in South Asia and West Asia. Furthermore, potential impacts such as undermining initiatives like the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) and increasing the importance of alternative trade routes must also be considered.