Israel's Asymmetric Warfare Strategy

The Israel-Iran conflict, ignited in the shadow of the genocide in Gaza, and the rising tensions between the new Syrian government in the Suwayda region and Israel-backed Druze groups are deeply unsettling not only the involved parties but the entire region. Israel is employing asymmetric warfare methods to expand its influence and systematically instrumentalizing social fault lines in Iran and Syria. This strategy incorporates elements of “hybrid warfare,” including intelligence operations, psychological warfare tactics, and policies designed to trigger societal polarization.

Within this framework, Israel’s high-profile intelligence operations inside Iranian territory and its support for Druze groups opposing the Syrian regime led by Ahmed al-Shara have heightened fears that similar scenarios could unfold in neighboring countries. As a result, suspicions are growing that different social groups may be drawn into intelligence activities or opposition movements, leading to stricter internal security policies and a shrinking public space across regional states.

The Twelve Days War began with unmanned aerial platforms assembled in secret workshops by Mossad agents infiltrated into Iran, followed by attacks on June 13 targeting strategic sites such as nuclear facilities, air defense systems, and the residences of senior commanders. Iran assessed this operation as a major intelligence failure, deepening its regime’s suspicions toward internal dissent and intensifying its repressive policies. According to official figures, approximately 21,000 people were arrested during the conflict on suspicion of espionage arrested, and at least seven individuals were detained on espionage charges during this period has been executed..

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s call for the Iranian people to take to the streets against the regime poses a serious internal security risk for Iran, especially given that the protests that reignited after the death of Mahsa Amini in September 2022 remain vivid in the collective social memory. As Iran confronts severe shortages of water and electricity with its interruptions, the possibility of renewed anti-regime demonstrations is on the agenda, and the risk of protesters being arrested on charges of espionage remains a strong likelihood. In this context, Israel seeks not only to strike the Iranian regime militarily but also to weaken it from within by exploiting social unrest as a political instrument.

Another manifestation of Israel’s strategy is observable through Afghan migrants. The use of public reports to evaluate espionage allegations has directly targeted Afghan migrants. Long-standing anti-Afghan hate speech in Iran has transformed after the war into accusations of espionage. Consequently, Afghan migrants have been effectively declared the scapegoats for Iran’s intelligence gaps during the conflict. This process has led to a sharp increase in deportations; alone in the first month after the war’s end, over 410,000 Afghans were expelled Has been deported., and this number is projected to reach 1.5 million by the end of 2025 has surpassed.. Moreover, the deportation of Afghans holding residency permits and the harsh conditions during the expulsion process have resulted in serious human rights violations.

Israel’s strategy of instrumentalizing social tensions in Iran to weaken the Tehran regime can be viewed as a classic asymmetric warfare method. This approach seeks to undermine the targeted country’s security capacity by activating multiple fault lines within its society—political distrust toward the regime, and divisions based on ethnic, religious, political, and social identities. In this sense, Israel’s approach can also be interpreted as a form of social engineering. Regional states, recognizing Israel’s strategy, have responded by increasing pressure on social groups they perceive as threats, aiming to prevent similar scenarios from unfolding on their own soil.

The dynamics observed in Iran appear to be resonating across the entire region. For instance, Jordan announced it had suspended foreign labor recruitment for three months and launched a comprehensive inspection campaign to identify irregularities in foreign worker employment. Officially justified as an effort to restructure the labor market and prioritize Jordanian citizens amid high unemployment and economic pressure, this move has also been interpreted as an attempt to curb opposition and pro-Palestinian movements Pressing.

Equally notable is Crown Prince Hussein bin Abdullah’s announcement of the reinstatement of compulsory military service, suspended since 1991 will begin. Considering the classical theories of nation-state formation advanced by scholars such as Eugen Weber, the crown prince’s emphasis on the role of compulsory military service in forging national identity and strengthening the bond between youth and the homeland is no coincidence. This statement indicates that the move is linked not only to security concerns but also to a broader need for social cohesion.

Equally significant is Jordan’s recent crackdown on the Muslim Brotherhood, long regarded as a legitimate opposition movement has prohibited. Taken together, these developments reveal that the Amman administration, like other regional states, is deeply concerned that Israel’s strategy of weaponizing social unrest could be turned against its own internal stability.

Kuwait, another country that has recently intensified measures targeting internal security, revoked the citizenship of approximately 50,000 individuals on grounds of obtaining citizenship through illegal means has canceled.. Due to Kuwait’s unique citizenship laws, the population deprived of citizenship is estimated to be among the largest in the region 80 to 120 thousand. Known as “Bidun,” this group lives without access to fundamental citizenship rights. Considering that in Kuwait citizenship is used by the government both as a tool to ensure political loyalty to reward and as a mechanism for internal security to provide, the surge in denaturalization targeting foreign-origin populations cannot be assessed independently from regional developments and rising internal security anxieties.

In this context, Kuwait’s “Kuwaitization” policy, which has accelerated in recent years, is also noteworthy. This policy aims to strengthen national security and political control in critical sectors by replacing foreign workers with Kuwaiti citizens in both the private and public sectors. Indeed, in a recent statement by the Kuwaiti Minister of Justice, all judicial personnel are to be fully Kuwaiti by 2030 Will be Kuwaitized. This ongoing process—combining denaturalization practices with the nationalization of employment—demonstrates that Israel’s strategy of exploiting social unrest is echoing in the Gulf states and triggering a chain reaction of regional security paranoia.

In conclusion, Israel’s asymmetric warfare strategy not only seeks to weaken targeted regimes from within but also pushes regional states toward harsh security measures that generate new social vulnerabilities. While historical tensions between Middle Eastern regimes and their societies already exist due to authoritarian practices, these repressive security measures deepen those tensions and create fertile ground for new forms of social resistance. Regional states, aware of Israel’s strategy, are responding with intensified crackdowns—including arrests, deportations, entry bans, and denaturalization—against social groups suspected of, or perceived as potentially capable of, espionage. Such practices not only lead to serious human rights violations and mass suffering but also risk fueling new forms of societal resistance against regimes and triggering a spiral of political violence. Thus, Israel’s strategy and the reactions it provokes are undermining the entire regional security architecture and carrying the potential to ignite a new wave of instability.

Author: Ahmet Zahit Güney.