The Concept of Risk and Military Risk Management from a Historical Perspective

People and leaders living in ancient times perceived risk as a concept rooted in fortune and elements beyond human control. Centuries ago, risk was regarded as an unavoidable manifestation of chance outside human influence.

In later periods, with the advancement of civilization, science, and technology, decision-makers began to define risk and measure its level in order to make the most accurate decisions and avoid harm or loss. As people’s knowledge and experience grew, they developed various methods to identify and quantify risk through trial and error.

Although historical development has revealed diverse perspectives on risk, certain significant commonalities in its usage stand out.

A widely accepted definition of risk is: “The probability that values held by individuals will be harmed as a result of human activities or events.” Another definition describes risk as the likelihood of failing to achieve a specific objective within a given time frame and consequently suffering harm. Its most prominent characteristics are: “inability to be known with certainty, variability over time, potential to produce negative outcomes, and manageability.” From this perspective, it is argued that various risks may exist within an organization and can be classified as global, environmental, social, cultural, financial, long-term, short-term, stakeholder-related, or technical.

All human activities involve an element of risk. However, military operations and activities entail greater risks compared to other domains. Risks should be accepted when they are balanced by potential opportunities or when stakeholders are willing to bear possible consequences. According to the Turkish Language Association (Türk Dil Kurumu) dictionary, risk is defined as “the danger of suffering harm or loss.” The TDK Dictionary of Science and Art Terms (2006) defines risk as “the probability of events adversely affecting the returns resulting from economic decision-making units,” or more precisely, as a situation in which the probability of events occurring is known.

Etymologically, the word “risk” is believed to have originated from the Latin “Riscum” or the Arabic “Rızık.” In French, however, the concept of risk carries a more positive connotation, implying proximity to opportunity rather than loss. In English, the term tends to have a more negative meaning. Military risk is defined as the probability and impact of an activity or event, or its potential material benefits or adverse outcomes. According to the AAP-6 NATO Glossary of Terms and Definitions (2020), risk is defined as the extent to which uncertainties and potential events may affect the achievement of objectives, while risk management is described as the process of identifying, assessing, and controlling risks arising from operational factors, and making conscious decisions that balance risk costs against mission benefits. In many other sources, risk is generally defined as danger, or the probability of loss or harm.

Although hazards are characterized in terms of probability and severity, risk can be viewed as a measure of uncertainty. Subjective approaches and objective measurements of risk often lead to confusion. Risk is not always a concept associated with negative outcomes; sometimes, as shown in Figure-1, it can lead to gains. Personnel must continuously consider that risk exists in every aspect of life and every activity. Risk encompasses both opportunities and threats. Gains derived from opportunities must exceed the costs resulting from threats for a risk to be accepted.

There is a close relationship between risk and uncertainty. Wherever risk exists, uncertainty can also be discussed. Risk and uncertainty are interrelated but distinct concepts.

When the possible outcomes of a decision and their associated probabilities can be calculated, risk can be said to exist. To better understand the concept of risk, the concept of “uncertainty” must be grasped. Uncertainty refers to situations where actions or effects have multiple possible outcomes, and the probabilities or likelihoods of these outcomes are unknown. Risk, on the other hand, applies to situations where actions or effects have multiple possible outcomes, and the probabilities or severities of these outcomes are known.

^{Comparison Table of Uncertainty and Risk Concepts}

From this perspective, risk has two dimensions: first, the probability of its occurrence; second, the magnitude of its impact on the system. In general terms, risk can be defined as a function of impact and probability.

Risk is classified into two categories: identified risk and residual (remaining) risk. Additionally, literature includes definitions of subjective and objective risk.

These are risks that have been determined and defined. In other words, they are risks identified through various analytical methods. Identified risk has two types: acceptable risk and unacceptable risk. Within this framework:

The portion of identified risk that is permitted to exist without requiring additional controls.

A risk that cannot be ignored. These risks must be eliminated or controlled absolutely.

A risk that has not yet been detected. Although real and significant, it is not knowable or measurable.

The risk that persists after preventive measures for hazards have been implemented. It is the risk remaining after the application of risk management efforts and activities. In other words, residual (remaining) risk is the sum of acceptable risk and unidentified risk.

The diagram below illustrates types of risk. In risk management activities, the primary focus should be on identified risk. The main objective of risk reduction measures and risk management is to reduce identified unacceptable risks.

^{Types of Risk}

Various sources in the literature classify risk into different types based on different perspectives. In his work “Military Risk Assessment,” Johnson examines risk as subjective and objective. According to Johnson, subjective risk is a perception of risk arising from leaders’ or individuals’ past experiences, media influence, or environmental pressures. Objective risk, on the other hand, is determined based on engineering perspectives and methodologies, scientific, analytical data, and tools. This type of risk involves laboratory studies, numerical probability calculations, and statistical data.