The Concept of Risk and Military Risk Management from a Historical Perspective

In ancient times, humans and leaders perceived risk as an element arising from fortune and beyond human control cause concept. Centuries ago risk, chance operating outside human control was accepted as inevitable.

In later periods, with the advancement of civilization, science and technology, decision-makers began to define risk and measure its level in order to make the most accurate decisions and avoid losses. As human knowledge and experience developed, they devised various methods to identify and measure risk through trial and error.

Historical throughout this process, different perspectives on risk have emerged, yet certain important common points stand out in its usage.

Definition

A widely accepted definition of risk is “the possibility that values held by individuals may be harmed as a result of human activities or events” common. According to another definition, risk is characterized primarily by “its uncertainty and lack of precise knowledge, its variability over time, its potential to produce adverse outcomes, and its manageability” within a specific time range, as the likelihood of failing to achieve a particular objective and thereby suffering harm. From this perspective, various risks may exist within an organization and can be classified as global, environmental, social, cultural, financial, long and short in nature, originating from stakeholders or technical.

All human activities involve an element of risk. Nevertheless, military operation and operations entail greater risks compared to other domains. Risks should be accepted when they become reasonable in light of potential opportunities or when stakeholders are willing to bear the possible consequences. The Turkish Dictionary published by the Turkish Language Association (TDK) defines risk as “the danger of suffering harm, riziko”. According to the TDK Dictionary of Science and Art Terms (2006), risk is defined as “the probability of events adversely affecting the returns of economic decision-making units”, in other words, as a situation where the probability of events occurring is known situation.

Etymologically, the word “risk” is believed to have originated from the Latin “Riscum” or the Arabic “Rızık”. In contrast, in French, the concept of risk carries more of a positive connotation, implying a transition from loss to opportunity close. In English, however, the term has a more negative meaning. Military risk is defined as the likelihood and impact of a activity or event, or its potential material benefits or adverse outcomes. In the AAP-6 NATO Glossary of Terms and Definitions (2020), risk is defined as the extent to which uncertainties and potential events may affect the achievement of objectives, while risk management is described as the process of identifying, evaluating, and controlling risks arising from operational factors, and making informed decisions that balance risk costs against mission benefits balance. In many other sources, risk is generally defined as the likelihood of loss or harm.

Dimensions

Although hazards are characterized by terms such as likelihood and severity, risk can be viewed as a measure of uncertainty. Subjective approaches and objective measurements of risk often generate confusion. Risk is not always a concept associated with negative outcomes; sometimes, as illustrated in Figure-1, it can lead to gains. It must always be kept in mind by personnel that every aspect of life and every activity involves some level of risk. Risk encompasses both opportunities and threats. 14 A risk should not be accepted unless the benefits derived from opportunities exceed the costs resulting from threats.

There is a close relationship between risk and uncertainty. Wherever risk exists, uncertainty is also present. Risk and uncertainty are interrelated but distinct concepts.

When the possible outcomes of a decision and their associated probabilities can be calculated, risk can be said to exist. To better understand the concept of risk, the concept of “uncertainty” must be grasped. Uncertainty refers to situations where an action or effect has multiple possible outcomes, and the probabilities or likelihoods of these outcomes are unknown. 15 Risk, on the other hand, applies to situations where an action or effect has multiple possible outcomes, and the probabilities or severity of these outcomes are known.

Comparison Table of Uncertainty and Risk Concepts

From this perspective, risk has two dimensions: first, the likelihood of its occurrence; second, the magnitude of its impact. In general terms, risk can be defined as a function of impact and likelihood.

Types

Risk is classified into two categories: inherent risk and residual (remaining) risk. Additionally, literature includes definitions of subjective and objective risk.

Identified Risk

These are risks that have been determined and defined. In other words, they are risks identified through various analytical methods. Identified risk has two types: acceptable risk and unacceptable risk. Within this framework;

a) Acceptable Risk

The portion of identified risk that is permitted to exist without requiring additional controls.

b) Unacceptable Risk

This is a risk that cannot be ignored. Such risks are eliminated or controlled absolute.

Unidentified Risk

This is a risk that has not been detected. It may be significant and potentially important, yet it is not identifiable or measurable.

Residual Risk

This is the risk that remains after controls for hazards have been implemented. It is the risk that persists after the application of risk management efforts and activities. In other words, residual (remaining) risk is the sum of acceptable risk and unidentified risk.

The diagram below illustrates types of risk. In risk management activities, the primary focus should be on “identified risk”. The main objective of risk reduction measures and risk management is to reduce identified unacceptable risks.

Types of Risk

Subjective and Objective Risk

Various sources in the literature classify risk into different types based on different perspectives. In this context, Johnson, in his work “Military Risk Assessment”, examines risk as objective and subjective. According to Johnson, subjective risk arises from individual perceptions of danger or from experiences influenced by leader or environmental pressures. Objective risk, on the other hand, is determined based on an engineering perspective and methodology, relying on scientific, analytic data and tools. This type of risk includes laboratory studies, numerical probability calculations, and statistical data.