12 Days War and Lessons for Türkiye Report

The 12-Day War and Lessons for Türkiye is an institutional report prepared by the National Intelligence Academy (MİA) in June 2025, offering a multidimensional analysis of the Israel-Iran conflict and presenting a strategic perspective on contemporary security architecture. The report examines the lessons Türkiye can draw from conflicts in its immediate vicinity at technical, tactical, and strategic levels.

Objective of the Report

The primary objective of the report titled The 12-Day War and Lessons for Türkiye, prepared by the National Intelligence Academy (MİA), is to analyze the conflict between Israel and Iran that took place between 13 and 24 June 2025 and is publicly known as the “12-Day War,” from the perspectives of military capability, intelligence structure, diplomatic relations, and technological applications, and to illustrate the strategic lessons Türkiye can derive from this conflict through concrete examples. In this context, the report also includes recommendations aimed at enhancing Türkiye’s resilience against similar threat scenarios, particularly by defining new forms of warfare.

Structure of the Report

This study, composed of four main sections, enables a comprehensive examination of the conflict and the derivation of Türkiye-specific insights. The first section analyzes the military-technological dimensions of the conflict, the second section explores diplomatic and strategic implications, the third section presents future scenario analyses, and the fourth section outlines the lessons Türkiye can draw from the conflict and the concrete steps it must take.

First Section: Conventional and Hybrid Warfare Technologies

The first section, titled Conventional and Hybrid Warfare Technologies, emphasizes that the conflict was not confined to classical military means but instead exemplified a hybrid warfare model conducted across multiple domains.

Israel’s simultaneous and coordinated use of electronic warfare, cyberattacks, information operations, and air power demonstrates the effectiveness of “multi-layered operations” in modern warfare doctrine.

The report prepared by MİA underscores that the conflict extended beyond the physical domain, highlighting that operations conducted in digital, psychological, and perceptual dimensions played a decisive role in shaping its course. Israel’s targeting of radar and command-and-control systems to establish strategic superiority illustrates the high efficacy of this multidimensional approach. Another key point emphasized in the report is that this approach represents a new warfare doctrine in which unmanned aerial vehicles operate in tandem with manned platforms, integrating diverse operational environments.

Additionally, the report highlights how centralized and static defense systems can become highly vulnerable when confronted with flexible and integrated attacks.

Second Section: Assessments and Lessons Learned

The second section of the report, titled Assessments and Lessons Learned, analyzes the diplomatic, intelligence, and sociopolitical impacts of the conflict beyond its military dimensions. According to the report, Israel’s deep intelligence network within Iran emerged as one of the most critical factors behind its operational successes on the ground.

The second section also links Iran’s internal security vulnerabilities to factors such as public sentiment toward the regime, economic pressures, ethnic tensions, and susceptibility to external interference. The ability of various groups within Iran to conduct assassinations and information transfers using unmanned aerial vehicles reveals both critical security gaps and the permeability of Iran’s intelligence environment. The report explains that from Türkiye’s perspective, this situation underscores the risk that intelligence deficiencies, unless addressed through a comprehensive security awareness encompassing civil society, could evolve into a national security issue affecting not only state institutions but the broader population.

Third Section: Possible Scenarios

The third section, titled Possible Scenarios, evaluates potential future developments following the Israel-Iran conflict.

Resumption of Iran-US Negotiations

This scenario is based on the possibility of diplomatic negotiations emerging after the conflict. It is noted that Iran, following significant military losses and security vulnerabilities, may voluntarily impose limits on its uranium enrichment activities, thereby reducing the crisis. This scenario is also highlighted as potentially opening the door for reform-oriented Iranian politicians and facilitating the re-establishment of dialogue channels between the United States and Iran.

Failure of Diplomatic Negotiations and Persistent Tension

The second scenario anticipates a prolonged state of moderate but persistent regional tension if the parties fail to return to the negotiating table. In this case, Israel may continue conducting precision strikes against Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, while Iran, without directly targeting Israel, may respond through proxy actors in Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen.

The report notes that although direct warfare would not occur under this scenario, energy transit routes, trade corridors, diplomatic missions, and civilian infrastructure would remain under constant threat.

Resumption of Full-Scale War

The third scenario envisions a full-scale conflict triggered by a large-scale attack by Israel or the United States against Iran’s nuclear facilities. In such a case, Iran could launch attacks against Israeli cities, Gulf states, and even U.S. bases in Europe, utilizing not only its conventional military capabilities but also proxy actors.

The report further emphasizes that such a development could risk the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, directly disrupting global energy supply chains, triggering sharp increases in oil prices, causing global supply crises, and exacerbating political uncertainty.

Fourth Section: Conclusions and Steps Türkiye Must Take

The section titled Conclusions and Steps Türkiye Must Take outlines the risks and opportunities Türkiye may face in the future. In particular, it stresses that in the context of instability centered on Iran, Türkiye must restructure its border security, develop proactive policies regarding refugee movements, diversify its energy security, and update its defense industry capacity at both technological and strategic levels.

The report highlights that Türkiye’s potential mediator role in the region holds importance not only in terms of diplomatic prestige but also for its economic and security interests. Energy and trade projects with Iran could gain strategic depth within a stable diplomatic framework. At the same time, strengthening early warning systems against worst-case scenarios, ensuring the security of defense personnel, and raising public awareness must be prioritized on Türkiye’s national security agenda.

Moreover, the report emphasizes that the 12-day war, initiated by Israel’s dominant offensive operations, offers significant lessons for Türkiye’s defense industry. It notes that conceptual transformation processes in warfare, which previously took decades, are now occurring within much shorter timeframes. The emergence of new combat environments and large-scale changes are no longer confined to years or months but can unfold rapidly. This necessitates the continuous updating of countermeasures. In this context, the report draws attention to the fact that Türkiye’s defense industry must not only meet its traditional needs but also adapt to the reality that tomorrow’s battlefield is rapidly becoming today’s norm.