Climate Migrants

Climate migrants are individuals or communities who are forced to temporarily or permanently leave their homes due to environmental degradation caused by climate change, whether sudden or slow-onset. This phenomenon arises not only from sudden disasters such as storms and floods but also from slow-moving processes like drought, desertification, and rising sea levels. In academic literature, various terms such as “climate refugees” or “environmental refugees” are also used to describe these people; however, the term “climate migrant” is often preferred to highlight the legal vacuum that exists under international law, as these individuals do not currently have a recognized legal status as refugees. As the impacts of climate change continue to intensify, climate-induced migration is increasingly regarded as one of the most critical global challenges of the 21st century.

Causes and Types of Climate Migration

Climate migration is a phenomenon rooted in complex and multidimensional factors. The primary drivers can be categorized into two groups: direct and indirect consequences of climate change.

Sudden-Onset Events: Natural disasters such as hurricanes, floods, inundations, and uncontrolled wildfires fall into this category. Such events can cause severe damage to infrastructure and property, result in loss of life, and compel populations to flee either before the event occurs or during and after its impact.

Slow-Onset Events: These include long-term changes such as drought, declining agricultural productivity, reduced access to clean water, desertification, and rising sea levels. In these cases, the initial adaptation strategy of affected populations is typically not permanent displacement but rather temporary adjustments to local conditions.

Indirect Triggers: The International Organization for Migration (IOM) identifies four main factors that trigger climate-based migration: increasing population pressure combined with environmental degradation; diminished access to food and water leading to resource scarcity; rising sea levels threatening habitable areas, particularly in island nations; and heightened competition over dwindling natural resources, which over time can escalate into social conflict and become another catalyst for migration. Climate migration can be classified differently depending on the geographic context and duration of displacement.

Internal and Cross-Border (External) Migration: The vast majority of climate-related migrations occur within national borders in the form of internal displacement. People generally prefer to relocate to nearby, safer areas within their own country. However, in cases where entire countries—particularly small island states—are at risk of being submerged, or where safe areas within a country are insufficient, cross-border migration movements also occur.

Temporary and Permanent Migration: The duration of migration depends on the nature of the triggering event. After sudden disasters such as floods or storms, people may relocate temporarily and return once conditions improve. However, when livelihoods become permanently uninhabitable due to factors like prolonged drought or rising sea levels, populations are forced to migrate without the possibility of return—this is known as permanent migration.

Global Data and Projections

Climate-induced human mobility has reached alarming global dimensions.

According to data from the International Organization for Migration (IOM), over the past decade, an average of 21.6 million people per year have been displaced internally due to climate-related weather events. In 2022 alone, 32.6 million new cases of internal displacement were recorded as a result of such disasters, accounting for 53% of all internal displacements that year. Between 2008 and 2016, it is estimated that 227.6 million people were displaced due to disasters. In 2020, 30.7 million new displacement cases were recorded due to disasters, with over 98% of these caused by weather-related hazards such as storms and floods.

Future projections indicate that the problem will continue to grow. According to the World Bank’s “Groundswell” report, by 2050, climate change’s impacts on water resources, agricultural productivity, and sea level rise could force 216 million people within six major geographic regions to migrate within their own countries. The IOM estimates that by 2050, depending on the degree of global warming and population growth rates, between 44 million people in a more optimistic scenario and 216 million in a more pessimistic scenario could become climate migrants. Projections suggest that the regions expected to experience the highest levels of population movement by 2050 are, in order, Sub-Saharan Africa, East Asia and the Pacific, and South Asia. For example, in Bangladesh, a two-meter rise in sea level could lead to 2.1 million people becoming climate migrants by the year 2100. As a historical example, Hurricane Katrina in the United States in 2005 caused approximately 1.5 million people to be temporarily displaced.

Climate Migration Statistics (AA)

Legal Status and International Law

One of the most fundamental challenges faced by climate migrants is the absence of a recognized legal status under international law. The foundational instrument of today’s international protection regime, the 1951 Geneva Convention, defines a “refugee” as someone who has a well-founded fear of persecution due to race, religion, nationality, membership in a particular social group, or political opinion.

This definition does not cover individuals displaced by environmental causes such as climate change or natural disasters. The reason lies in the Convention’s requirement that the persecution feared must be human-induced; although climate change is a consequence of human activity, it is regarded as a supra-human phenomenon. This legal gap prevents climate migrants from accessing the rights and protection mechanisms granted to refugees.

One of the most concrete examples of this issue is the rejection of the asylum application by Ioane Teitiota, a citizen of Kiribati, who argued that rising sea levels had rendered his country uninhabitable. Nevertheless, new interpretations are emerging within international human rights law that may offer protection to climate migrants. In its 2020 ruling on the Teitiota case, the United Nations Human Rights Committee determined that returning a person to a country where they face a serious and irreversible risk to their right to life due to climate change impacts could violate the principle of non-refoulement.

While this ruling establishes an important precedent for climate migrants seeking international protection, no established legal framework yet exists. Many countries, including Türkiye, also lack specific legal protection statuses for climate migrants in their national legislation. Some countries—such as Australia, Canada, and the United States—offer temporary protection statuses, but these remain limited and lack clear legal rights.

The Human Dimensions of Climate Migration

Climate-induced migration creates profound social, economic, and security challenges for both displaced communities and host regions.

Security Dimension: Large-scale and uncontrolled migration movements can be perceived as a “threat” by host countries. Security theories suggest that fears that migrants will alter social identity, structures, and traditions can lead to anti-migrant policies and the militarization of borders. It is evident that countries most responsible for climate change are investing more in fortifying their borders to keep migrants out than in addressing the root causes of the crisis.

Economic Dimension: Climate change is destroying people’s fundamental livelihoods. For instance, in the Lake Chad Basin, a reduction of over 90% in the lake’s size due to drought has eliminated fishing and agricultural activities, triggering a major economic crisis and a wave of migration. In receiving areas, increased population pressures strain infrastructure, healthcare, and education services. Declining agricultural output can lead to food shortages and price increases.

Social Dimension: Climate migrants face risks such as cycles of poverty, disruption of education, deepening gender inequality, and severe psychological trauma, especially among children and the elderly. Additionally, the gradual loss of cultural and spiritual heritage tied to abandoned lands represents a significant social loss.

International Policies and Solutions

While international efforts addressing climate migration remain insufficient, they are steadily increasing.

Key climate agreements such as the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement aim to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and tackle the root causes of climate change but do not directly address the phenomenon of migration. However, the importance of “adaptation” policies is becoming increasingly recognized. According to the World Bank, with appropriate planning and emission reductions, the number of climate-induced internal displacements could be reduced by up to 80%.

A significant step recently introduced at United Nations Climate Change Conferences (COP) is the “Loss and Damage Fund,” designed to compensate the most vulnerable countries for losses caused by climate crises. However, the question of how this fund will be financed remains unresolved.

Among proposed solutions is the use of revenues from a global carbon tax to finance adaptation measures in vulnerable countries. It is emphasized that such assistance must go beyond financial aid and include technology transfer, expert support, and institutional capacity building.

It is argued that climate migration must be recognized as a global issue and a global responsibility. Legal gaps must be addressed and international agreements must be established. Expanding international protection channels to facilitate the movement of people forced to leave their countries or cities due to environmental factors is essential. Developed countries must increase climate financing to help vulnerable nations extend the time their populations can remain in place. However, for island nations that will become entirely uninhabitable, a migration plan is urgently necessary.

Climate Justice

The concept of climate justice highlights the injustice whereby those least responsible for climate change are the ones most severely affected by its consequences. Countries with the highest historical emissions are strengthening their borders, while those with the lowest emissions are being forced to migrate due to climate-induced disasters. Developed nations and large corporations continue to pollute while simultaneously building increasingly militarized walls against the people displaced by the very climate crisis they have helped create.

Climate migrants are not merely victims of climatic variability; they are manifestations of a system that produces its burdens at the expense of the most vulnerable groups in terms of power and wealth. The causes of climate change must be understood within the complex interplay between human and natural systems, as a social process linked to environmental degradation, power relations, social stratification, economic inequality, colonial legacies, political organization, and gender-based hierarchies.

Some researchers argue that climate migration should be analyzed as a product of capitalism and propose rethinking “climate refugees” as “capitalist refugees.” This perspective interprets the tendency to naturalize the current crisis and avoid accountability as an ideological reflex. Neoliberalism frames individual agency as the sole determinant of mobility and individualizes responsibility. In this context, when the discourse on climate migration is detached from social relations, questions of accountability—who is responsible for dispossession and displacement—and who must provide redress become blurred.